The fall and early winter is forecasted to be colder and wetter, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center. Even though the Texas Panhandle has received more rain this year and is close to normal rainfall received in some areas, the majority of the Panhandle remains in a severe drought with some areas in the Northwest Panhandle still in the extreme to exceptional categories. Figure 1 shows the U.S. Drought Monitor from September 16.
NOAA has issued an El Niño watch and says there is a 60-65 percent chance of El Niño forming in the Northern Hemisphere this fall and winter in its September 4 ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) diagnostic discussion. El Niño is characterized by unusually warmer temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific which is known to bring increased rainfall across the southern U.S. Figure 2 shows the sea surface temperature anomalies across the Equatorial Pacific which is mostly characterized by neutral to orange shades which signifies warmer temperatures.
Figure 3 shows the NOAA precipitation three month outlook for October, November and December for the U.S. which signifies above average rainfall for all of Texas. The next ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) discussion will be available on October 9 at www.elnino.noaa.gov.
(Article written by PGCD's Meteorologist, Jennifer Puryear)
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