Study Shows Program Increases Economic Value

Panhandle Groundwater Conservation District’s Precipitation Enhancement Program was recently included in a benefit-cost analysis study of Texas weather modification activities completed by Dr. Jason L. Johnson, associate professor at Texas A&M University and extension economist for Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service. The study considers what impact an additional inch of rain will have on dryland crop acreage, irrigated crop acreage and grazing lands, and what economic gain this will provide to the areas of study and throughout the state. Besides PGCD’s Precipitation Enhancement Program two other programs were a part of the study including West Texas Weather Modification Association in San Angelo, Texas, and South Texas Weather Modification Association in Pleasanton, Texas.

According to Johnson, “The purpose of this analysis was to provide the framework for an economic assessment to agriculture of a hypothetical one inch of additional rainfall in counties participating in selected weather modification programs.” PGCD provided operating cost data which enabled a benefit-cost ratio to be calculated so the potential return on investment from increased agriculture production could be considered. Counties included in the study are those counties located within the PGCD district boundaries and includes portions of Armstrong, Potter and Hutchinson counties and all of Carson, Donley, Gray, Roberts and Wheeler counties.

After considering the increased dryland crop revenues, the cost savings to irrigated acreage and increased grazing land revenues from an additional inch of rainfall for the District the direct local economic impact is $4,877,938. In addition to the local economic impact, Johnson also calculated an estimate state economic impact using Impact Analysis for Planning output multipliers. These secondary impacts can help with increased economic stability and growth in the state and are not confined to the agricultural community. The estimated state impact for an additional inch of rainfall in the PGCD’s district is $9,407,140. After comparing these economic gains to the cost of the program the benefit-cost ratio for the PGCD’s Precipitation Enhancement Program is a $22.20 return on every $1.00 invested.

PGCD participated in this study to provide an educational resource to the District to help assess potential benefits versus cost of the program now and in the future. Johnson states that he used a very conservative stance during the study to avoid any overstate of potential benefits, and noted that if an additional inch of rainfall can be realized, the benefits will meet or exceed expectations. “Clearly this study shows that our program is a cost effective program and a prudent use of our tax dollars,” stated C.E. Williams, PGCD General Manager.

PGCD’s precipitation enhancement program started back up April 1 for its 16th year.

Recent rain...

Some welcome rain fell around the district last week on Thursday evening (May 9.)

Of course, the term "welcome rain" is redundant at this point, as any moisture we get (almost!) is welcome. (We say almost, because some folks in southern Wheeler county could have done without the hail that fell earlier in the week.)

About two inches were recorded in parts of Pampa and White Deer. Parts of Amarillo received a half inch, with other reports coming anywhere between those amounts.

The clouds first began building over southern Donley County about 3:00 pm, and Panhandle Groundwater Conservation District's weather modification pilots were put on alert. Aaron Woolsey was soon in the air, firing flares as instructed by staff meteorologist Jennifer Puryear--who was keeping a hand on the mouse, a hand on the microphone, ears on the radio, and eyes on the radar and satellite images. In between all of that, she was finding time to inform this blogger what the images meant, what the messages from the pilot told her, and what she was telling the pilot to do. (Aaron also covered Armstrong County and was joined in ther air later by Herb Speckman who covered Roberts and Gray Counties.) It was fascinating--and obviously productive.

On a personal note, this was the first real test of my rainwater harvesting (RWH) system. It is crude and comparatively small--catching only a fraction of the runoff from my roof--but it captured a full 55 gallons in a matter of minutes, with the overflow going to a tree in my back yard. I will save the water for an "unrainy day"!

Click for more info on our Precipitation Enhancement program.

Precipitation Enhancement Kicks Off 13th Year at PGCD

Panhandle Groundwater Conservation District (PGCD) will kick off its’ thirteenth year of precipitation enhancement this month as we move into the spring across the Texas Panhandle. This year has started off slightly better than the spring of 2011, with the La Niña in place not as strong as last year. La Niña was the primary reason for the severe drought that the Texas Panhandle experienced last year. According to the Climate Prediction Center, La Niña is expected to transition to more neutral conditions by the end of April and continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer of 2012.

Models that predict La Niña, which are when temperatures are cooler than normal across the eastern Pacific Ocean, and El Niño, which are when temperatures are warmer than normal across the eastern Pacific Ocean, are trending towards a neutral condition for the Summer. Neutral conditions would benefit the Panhandle by bringing more average rainfall chances for the summer. Where as when El Niño is in place we see increased rainfall chances in the Panhandle, and when La Niña is in place we see less rainfall chances which is what occurred during 2011.

However, because we often see a slow demise of a La Niña events, impacts are expected to persist into the upcoming season. One of those impacts includes increased chances of above-average temperatures across the south-central United States. Here in the Texas Panhandle we are already seeing this with records highs during March. Amarillo broke three record high temperatures in March which occurred on March 15, 16 and 25.

The 2011 Precipitation Enhancement season concluded on September 3. The season began on April 25; however, last year was a hard year in the Texas Panhandle since rainfall was very limited due to the extreme drought most of Texas experienced along with other states in the United States. Table 1 shows the number of days flown, seeding flights, reconnaissance flights and hours flown per month through the 2011 season. There were not a lot of favorable conditions for seeding until the neutral conditions allowed for some dynamics across the Texas Panhandle to provide some seeding opportunities in July and August.

Table 1 shows the number of days flown, seeding flights, reconnaissance flights, and hours flown per month through the 2011 season.

The rainfall amounts in 2011 were in most cases below anything the Texas Panhandle has ever seen. During 2009 and 2010, most counties were above the district normal of 16.43 inches, and there were significant increases in rainfall from 2009 to 2010. However, when comparing the 2011 rainfall to those years it is evident that this year’s rainfall was severely hindered by La Niña with most counties seeing less than five inches of rainfall from April through September. Table 2 shows the rainfall values for the District counties for 2009-2011 and their differences.

Table 2 shows the comparison of rainfall from 2009-2011 during April-September in PGCD.

Last year’s seeding season was still considered very successful, providing on average a 20 percent rainfall increase per county according to Active Influence and Scientific Management. This increase was calculated using real-time rain gauge measurement collected throughout the District, and by comparing the radar data of the seeded clouds to the non-seeded clouds. This increase calculated out to an average of 0.89 inches of additional rainfall per county within the PGCD target area. Active Influence and Scientific Management analyzed a total of 38 clouds in 24 operational days. The results were evaluated as excellent with timing of seeding at 93 percent and no seeding opportunities missed. The cost of the program per acre was calculated at $0.037.